Vail Valley Real Estate Market Report

Welcome to the Rocky Mountain Home Team’s Vail Valley Real Estate Market Report Center!  Here you’ll find the latest real estate statistics news, and information for Eagle County, Colorado, homes. To begin, simply select the area you would like to explore:   Slopeside Markets Edwards East Eagle West Glossary  

Slopeside Markets

The Vail Board of Realtors recorded 19 residential property sales for November 2018 in the slopeside segment of the Vail Valley Real Estate Market, which includes Vail Village, Lionshead, Beaver Creek, Bachelor Gulch and Arrowhead.  Average sale price rose to $1,086 per square foot, the third highest monthly average of the year, and well above the 2017 average of $1,014 per square foot.

On Thursday, December 6th there were 270 residential properties available in the Slopeside Market, a net gain of 3 listings over October. Prices ranged from $1,900,000 – $34,000,000 for single family and duplex properties, and from $325,000 to $18,250,000 for condominiums and townhomes. There were 30 homes under contract.

A Note on the Slopeside Market: It’s A Small & Swingy Sample Size

Remember when looking at averages for this market that the Slopeside Market is small, select and diverse even compared to the Vail Valley Market as a whole. The numbers can vary wildly depending on what property types sell month to month. Small numbers of transactions, larger price tags and buyers with specific and unique demands make the details of individual properties – always an important consideration – even more important in this market.

January 2017 serves as a great example of a spike. That month, price per square foot launched to $1,288, the highest in our 5 years on record.  However, there were just 13 sales that month, including three sales for over $10 Million each – including the month’s top sale, a single family home in Vail Village selling for $23 Million.  Those sorts of numbers are going to push averages upward, especially in a month with a small number of transactions.

On the other hand, September 2017 saw sale price per square foot drop to $842, its lowest point since Sept. 2015.  23 recorded sales meant it was a bigger data set than January’s 13, but still subject to a distortion effect as a few sweet deals – including a duplex selling for just under $460 per square foot in Arrowhead – pulled down the overall average.

Working from full-year averages gives us a better picture of what we’re really looking at. The Vail MLS saw an average of 19 residential properties sales per month in 2016 – a drop from the 2015 average of 23 homes per month. Price per square foot also fell from an average of $961 in 2015 to $952 in 2016 – but few homeowners are looking to flip a home within a single year. Looking even just a little bit further back, the price per square foot average for 2013 was just $820 – meaning a 16% gain in value over just three years. The average for 2017 was $1,014.  The average for the first six months of 2018 is $1,077. It does look like, overall, Vail Valley Real Estate is still appreciating nicely.

Of course, the best way to track the value of a specific property is to ask for a professional analysis. Michael Routh and the Rocky Mountain Home Team offer a no-cost, no-obligation comparative market analysis to give you the information you need to make informed decisions in the Vail Real Estate Market.

 

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Edwards – East

The Vail Board of Realtors’ Multiple Listings Service recorded 69 residential property sales for November in the Eastern Vail Valley – from East Vail to Wolcott. Average days on market averaged 138, while the median rose by 18 days from Sept to 81 days. Average sale price for Eastern Vail Valley homes was $612 per square foot, well above the 2017 average sale price of $593 per square foot.

Excluding Slopeside Homes, there were 315 active listings and 46 homes under contract in the Eastern Vail Valley as of December 12, 2018.  Single Family and Duplex home prices ranged from 365,000 and $29,000,000. Condominium and Townhouse properties ranged from $279,900 to $6,995,000.

A Note On The Eastern Market: Should I Wait for Lower Prices?

As recent gains continue, can we expect a “market correction” in the form of cooling prices? It’s impossible to predict the long-term direction of the market – but, right now, low inventory at lower price points continues to drive prices up overall. That is very much in line with the valley’s history and it is hard to see that situation changing dramatically in the near future.

The most likely culprit in any potential decline in home prices would be rising interest rates. Recent increases have remained in line with expectations, and if rates continue to rise as predicted this will almost inevitably impact home prices. Unfortunately for buyers waiting for a market correction, interest rates would only impact prices by reducing buyers’ purchasing power. They would simply be paying more to their lender for the same home.

Of course, there could also be a gap between a jump in interest rates and any corresponding dip in prices – or even no corresponding dip. In either of these situations, buyers would be paying more to their lender for less home

Although interest rates are up from historic lows, mortgages are still affordable enough that owning a home is easily comparable, and often more affordable, than renting in the Vail Valley. Factoring in equity and tax deductions makes home ownership even more desirable.

Affordable homes – when priced appropriately – sell very quickly in Eagle County. Multiple offer situations and bidding wars are possibilities – be sure to be prepared and have a good agent when entering this market!

Are you looking for a home in the Vail Valley? Now might be the time to buy! Interest rates are still low, and there are still deals to be had in today’s market. It is entirely possible you could be paying less than your monthly rent and building equity at the same time.

Michael Routh and the Rocky Mountain Home Team can help you find the home you’re looking for. Contact us today for more information on buying a home in Eagle County or to start your Vail Valley property search.

 

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Eagle – West

The Vail Board of Realtors’ Multiple Listing Service recorded 32 residential property sales in the Vail Valley’s western market, including Eagle and Gypsum, for October 2018.  Average price per square foot rose to $268 in November – the highest average of the year to date and well above the annual 2017 average of $216.

One number that has remained of interest in this market has been the difference between the average and median days on market. June saw a new record gap of 85 days between the average (11) and the median (96). That gap narrowed in July and by August, the two were just 10 days apart. For the past three months, however, the gap has stood at 31 days – that’s a full month between the median and the average!

After a few months of seeing a bit of a break between list and sale price in this market, November 2018 closed the gap – the average list and sale prices were identical ($268 / Square Foot). So, while homes are taking slightly longer to sell, sellers seem to be able to get what they’re asking for in the end.

The real winners in the current environment are may still be move-up homeowners – those pulling equity from an existing home when prices are high and purchasing at a time when interest rates remain historically low. We’ve been saying this for months now, and we’re speaking from experience – two members of our team took advantage of current conditions to upgrade their homes on very favorable terms.

November saw no distressed property sales in western Eagle County. While a foreclosed home still turns up every now and again – three total in 2016 and four in 2017 – most homeowners are gaining equity and getting very close to list price for their properties. It is hard to see a distressed property market returning in force in the short term without a wider economic recession.

Are you thinking of selling your home in the Western Vail Valley? Michael Routh and the Rocky Mountain Home Team have the skills you’ll need to sell your home for the most money in the least amount of time. Contact us today to see how much your home might be worth.

 

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Glossary

New Listings: A measure of how much new supply is coming onto the market from sellers. A “listing” is a property that has been entered into the MLS for sale.

Pending Sales: A count of all the listings that went into “Pending” status during the reported period. Pending listings are counted at the end of the reported period.  Each listing is counted only one time.  If a listing goes into Pending, out of Pending then back into Pending all in one reported period, this listing would only be counted once.  This is the most real-time measure possible for home buyer activity, as it measures signed contracts on sales rather than the actual closed sales.  As such, it is called a “leading indicator” of buyer demand.

Closed Sales: A measure of home sales that were closed to completion during the report period.

Average and Median Sales Price: The average sale price is exactly that – the sum of all sale prices divided by the number of sales.  The median sales price is a price point where 50% of activity was higher and 50% was lower.  A few high level sales at the top of the market can raise the average, but will have little effect on the median.

Percent of List Price Received: A mathematical calculation of the percent difference from last list price and sold price for those listings sold in the reported period.

Days on Market until Sale: How long it takes homes to sell, on average.

Housing Affordability Index: A measure of how affordable a region’s housing is to its consumers.  A higher number means greater affordability.  The index is based on interest rates, median sales price and average income by county.

Inventory of Active Listings:  A measure of the number of homes available for sale at a given time.  The availability of homes for sale has a big effect on supply-demand dynamics and home prices.

Months Supply of Inventory: A measure of how balanced the market is between buys and sellers. It is expressed as the number of months it would hypothetically take to sell through all the available homes for sale, given current levels of home sales.  A balanced market ranges from 4 to 7 months of supply.  A buyer’s market has a higher number, reflecting fewer buyers relative to homes for sale.  A seller’s market has a lower number, reflecting more buyers relative to homes for sale.

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